20-21

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Thu Jan 21, 2021

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>The wind is decreasing and there has not been new snow since Monday. The snow from the Bridger Range south to West Yellowstone has a weak structure. There are two layers in the snowpack to be concerned about, one thin and one thick. The thin layer is feathery crystals of surface hoar buried a foot under the surface (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/buried-surface-hoar-cooke-city"><…;). The thicker layer is sugary, weak grains at the bottom 1-2 feet of the snowpack. Both of these layers are weak and could be triggered.&nbsp;</p>

<p>On Monday and Tuesday snowmobilers triggered slides in Tepee Basin (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23867"><strong><u>photos and details</u></strong></a>) and Buck Ridge (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/snowmobile-triggered-avalanche-se… Yellowmule photo</u></strong></a>). And on Tuesday skiers saw a recent avalanche on the north face of Mt. Blackmore (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/21/slab-avalanche-mt-blackmore"><str…;). The thick layer of weak snow underlying the bottom third of the snowpack is on most slopes. The thin layer of surface hoar is not everywhere, but it’s a good idea to assume it is since we don’t know it’s exact location. This was my advice in Monday’s <a href="https://youtu.be/YzVvIsb7on4"><strong><u>video</u></strong></a&gt; and it still holds true today.&nbsp;</p>

<p>These recent avalanches coupled with skiers still getting collapses/whumpfs, plus poor stability test scores, are signs of the snowpack’s chronic instability. Triggering avalanches is still possible today and the danger is rated MODERATE on all slopes.</p>

<p>The mountains around Cooke City have two weak layers to be concerned about. The first is an inch thick layer of feathery crystals (surface hoar) that is buried 12-18” deep. On Tuesday, a group of snowmobilers triggered this layer in Sheep Creek, and 2 small slides in Goose Creek broke on this layer the same day (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23857"><strong><u>details and photo</u></strong></a>). The second is a thin layer of faceted grains buried 3 feet deep. Both of these layers are scattered and not on every slope. Dave was in Cooke City on Sunday and Monday and recommends either assuming these layers are everywhere, or assessing slopes carefully by digging and testing (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AhOAQTfkHE&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH…;, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9oQHYge_gM"><strong><u>video</u></stro…;). Without new snow or wind-loading triggering avalanches is more difficult, but still possible. Because of buried weak layers and avalanche activity as recent as 48 hours ago, the avalanche danger is rated MODERATE on all slopes.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong><u>websi…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong><u>mtavalanche@gmail.com</u></str…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

See our education calendar for an up-to-date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events and opportunities to check out:

Snowmobiler triggered avalanche in Tepee Basin

Tepee Basin
Southern Madison
Code
SS-AMu-R2-D2-O
Aspect
E
Latitude
44.90410
Longitude
-111.18500
Notes
 
A snowmobiler triggered a slide in ..." Upper Teepee basin where skyline ridge meets up with I believe Bacon Rind at the Lee Metcalf area and set off a decent avalanche. Luckily the snowmobiler was able to get out of the path of the avalanche and nobody was involved. It looked like the crown was 3-4 ft in spots on a heavily wind loaded slope. Also there was old avalanche debris just to the south of this spot on same aspect of slope."
Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Snowmobile
Trigger Modifier
u-An unintentional release
R size
2
D size
2
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Slab Thickness
36.0 inches
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

A snowmobiler triggered this avalanche on a wind-loaded slope in Tepee Basin on Tuesday, 1/19. No one was caught. Photo: Anon

Southern Madison, 2021-01-20