20-21

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Dec 14, 2020

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>The mountains near Bozeman, Big Sky and West Yellowstone have 1-2 feet of sugary, faceted snow on the ground which will struggle to support the weight of additional snow (<strong>see our&nbsp;</strong><strong>videos from:</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBsCjnx1G-s"><strong>Lionhead</strong><…;, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HbIdWEuo1o&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH…;, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDfD3-tTguk"><strong>Saddle Peak</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4quJW8upKQg"><strong>Buck Ridge</strong></a>). Yesterday Doug and I went to Taylor Fork to put up the weather station (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/taylor-fork-weather-station-0">ph…;). It was cold, windy and we found shallow, weak snow (<strong><a href="https://youtu.be/G5byt6pEwP0">video</a></strong&gt;). Dave skied in Hyalite and found weak snow similar to elsewhere. Yesterday this snowpack was stable, but it won’t take much new snow to create an unstable slab on top (<strong><a href="https://youtu.be/aqBSydiYMYk">video</a></strong&gt;).</p>

<p>This morning’s snow brings totals since Friday to 4-7” equal to 0.2-0.4” of <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/or/snow/?cid=nrcs142p2… water equivalent</a> (SWE). This is a small amount of weight for the snowpack to hold, and today calm wind will not form fresh drifts. I do not expect many slab avalanches today, but wouldn’t be surprised to see a few. It is hard to know exactly how much weight the weak snowpack will hold, and slab avalanches might be possible with only a couple more inches of new snow.</p>

<p>Loose snow avalanches can be triggered on steep slopes, and can entrain the weak, sugary snowpack and become large and harmful (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/full-depth-facet-sluff-s-madison"…;). Pay attention for small wind slabs in isolated areas near ridgelines. Cracks across the snow from your feet or skis are a sign the snow is unstable (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/cracking-drifted-snow"><strong>ph…;). Before riding steep slopes, carefully evaluate the snowpack and consequences of an avalanche.</p>

<p>Today, new snow falling on a very weak snowpack creates elevated avalanche conditions and avalanche danger is rated MODERATE.</p>

<p>Near Cooke City the snowpack is 2-4 feet deep and generally stronger with less widespread weak layers than the rest of the advisory area. New snow since Friday totals 4” equal to 0.3” of SWE which will not overload the snowpack. We received a few reports of surface hoar buried 8-12” deep (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/surface-hoar-near-goose-creek">ph…;), and sugary facets closer to the bottom of the snowpack on some slopes (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xj-qhUPJigw"><strong>video</strong></a&…;). It is worthwhile to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk8W8nlUMpw&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH… and perform stability tests</a> to search for these layers. We can’t completely rule out small wind slabs that formed with moderate wind yesterday, and dry loose avalanches in steeper terrain. Before traveling on steep slopes, carefully assess the snowpack and consequences of a slide. Today the avalanche danger is LOW.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong>website<…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong></a…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

See our education calendar for an up to date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events and opportunities to check out:

From obs: "Observed large surface hoar grains preserved 10 - 25cm below the new snow surface. Photo taken in the flats of goose creek outlines most prominent weak layer in the pack. I suspect these grains are larger than most because of increased sun exposure in the valley bottom during the dryspell. Pits on north facing aspects didn’t show such a pronounced weak layer but evidence still exists of buried surface hoar layer." Photo: J. Wenzel

Cooke City, 2020-12-14

Goose Creek Cooke City

Date
Activity
Skiing
Snowmobiling

Observed large surface hoar grains preserved 10 - 25cm below the new snow surface. Photo taken in the flats of goose creek outlines most prominent weak layer in the pack. I suspect these grains are larger than most because of increased sun exposure in the valley bottom during the dryspell. Pits on north facing aspects didn’t show such a pronounced weak layer but evidence still exists of buried surface hoar layer.

Region
Cooke City
Location (from list)
Lulu Pass
Observer Name
Jake Wenzel