GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Feb 11, 2023
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>You can trigger large avalanches today on weak layers loaded by snowfall and wind earlier this week. Windloaded slopes remain the likeliest places to trigger slides. The wind drifts themselves have had a bit of time to bond, but they are sitting on weak layers throughout the snowpack that will stabilize more slowly. There are layers of surface hoar and near surface facets in the upper 3-4 ft of the snowpack and also weak snow near the ground (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uVGnUshKhY"><span><span><span><strong>… video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/XTrscbqcELU"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>… Ridge video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). The last human triggered avalanche was reported in Tepee Basin on Thursday (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28079"><span><span><span><strong><span…;), with more slides breaking earlier in the week (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/weather/wx-avalanche-log"><span><span><span… log</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Signs of instability are getting fewer and further between. This is a positive trend, but it means that you need to be more active in searching for instability before riding steep slopes. The best way to do this is to dig down to look for and test the buried weak layers (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBK444Tjh9I"><span><span><span><strong>… Fork video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Keep it simple: if you get propagating results in an Extended Column Test, stick to lower angle slopes for the day. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Remember that tracks on a slope don’t mean it won’t avalanche, only that no one has hit just the wrong spot yet. If you’re going to ride steep slopes make sure that you’re carrying an avalanche beacon, shovel, and probe and have a partner watching from a safe spot. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>We got reports of the snow surface becoming wet on some sunny slopes yesterday afternoon, but not enough to cause a real wet snow hazard. Expect the same again today.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is rated MODERATE across the advisory area.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Please share avalanche, snowpack or weather observations via our</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_obs"><span><span><span><span>…; </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span><span>website</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, email (</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>mtavalanche@gmail.com</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs). </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>
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Snowpits and no recent avalanches
We rode into the head of Cabin Creek from Taylor Fork and turned around behind Sage Peak, then headed to the northwest side of Carrot Basin at the wilderness boundary. We did not see any recent avalanches. We dug two pits. One at the wilderness boundary and one off the north facing ridge in Carrot Basin. At the wilderness boundary HS was 140cm and we had ECTN24 on surface hoar/facets buried 40 cm down. We also had an ECTP14 on facets near the ground, but this one seemed more like an outlier. In our pit at Carrot Basin HS was 155 cm and we had ECTX. Overall, stability seemed to be good. With minimal recent snow, and weak layers becoming stubborn, the likelihood of avalanches is trending towards unlikely.
Goose Creek Drainage
Did a full profile while out in Goose Creek today. Results indicated poor stability on a NE aspect about 7200 ft. The primary layer of concern was the buried surface hoar layer roughly 30 cm down in this location, took moderate strength (ECTP18) to get full propagation. Skiing conditions were good in the new snow from this weekend, you could subtly feel the MF crust from the time before the recent storm. We observed a small layer of surface hoar this morning, that will most likely be destroyed today from the intense sun on solar aspects.