20-21

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Jan 4, 2021

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Yesterday in Hyalite, an ice climber was saved by an ice screw placement from being knocked off the wall by a small wind slab triggered by a group above (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23524">details here</a></strong>). Luckily, nobody was injured. Strong west-southwest wind over the last 48 hours drifted recent snow into slabs overlying a weak snowpack, and created dangerous avalanche conditions on wind-loaded slopes. Since Thursday the mountains received a series of small storms which totaled 0.5-1.0” of <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/or/snow/?cid=nrcs142p2… water equivalent</a> (SWE). On a typical snowpack this gradual load would cause little concern, but this season’s weak, sugary snowpack can’t be trusted. Our videos from the last two days in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Ppy9Eyy_4&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH… Basin</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewdpClMTkwU&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH… Fork</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ihnOqeMkLc&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvQDzKmH… Peak</a> show the poor snowpack structure that exists in the mountains near Bozeman, Big Sky and West Yellowstone. Our <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity">avalanche activity log</a></strong> lists many warning signs of the potential to trigger avalanches on sugary, persistent weak layers.</p>

<p>Today large avalanches can be triggered, and are likely on slopes where strong wind over the last 48 hours concentrated the weight of recent snow into thick slabs. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on wind-loaded slopes and MODERATE on non-wind loaded slopes. Avoid steep, wind-loaded slopes and anticipate danger to rise if more snow falls this afternoon.</p>

<p>Near Cooke City, avalanches are possible on wind-loaded slopes where moderate to strong westerly winds drifted snow into fresh slabs. On Saturday on Abiathar Peak, skiers triggered a couple wind slabs that could have been harmful, and they luckily avoided being caught (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23512"><strong>photo and details</strong></a>). Yesterday skiers found fresh slabs that cracked 8-16” deep (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23525">details</a></strong&gt;).</p>

<p>Avoid slopes with evidence of recent wind-loading and carefully assess the snowpack before riding steep slopes. The snowpack near Cooke City is deeper and generally lacks widespread buried weak layers. However, a couple avalanches in the last week show that there are a few slopes where buried weak layers exist (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/23505"><strong>photo and details</strong></a>, <a href="https://youtu.be/UEY5A4YXibg"><strong>video</strong></a&gt;). Today avalanche danger is MODERATE on wind-loaded slopes and LOW on non-wind loaded slopes.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong>website<…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong></a…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

See our education calendar for an up to date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events and opportunities to check out:

Tin Cup Creek/Willow Creek Drainage

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

Yesterday I snowmobiled form the Keg Springs trailhead to Tin Cup Pass on Willow Creek. From the limited visibility we did not see any natural avalanche activity. We dug one pit on the Idaho side of the Centennials and found the total snow depth was 70cm and there were 2 distinct crusts in the snowpack and a fair amount of depth hoar. The pit profile was as follows:

70cm-55cm First Hardness
54cm-50cm 4 Finger
49cm-48cm Knife
47cm-25cm Fist (facets)
24cm-23cm Knife
22cm-0cm Fist (depth hoar)

Test Results: ECTN 12@49CM, ECTN 14@24CM

Region
Island Park
Observer Name
Chris Hericks

large collapse on Flanders Peak

Flanders Creek
Northern Gallatin
Code
Latitude
45.43810
Longitude
-110.94100
Notes

From obs: "This morning I was ascending Flanders Peak via the southeast trees. At approximately 1:30PM, on our second lap of the south-southeast bowl of Flanders Peak, I was skinning behind my friend who was putting in a new ascent track when we both heard a large "whump" and a 15 foot crack shot out from under his skis. I also witnessed him drop several inches from the large collapse in the snow. We were on a very low angle slope (less than 25 degrees) at approximately 9700 feet, in wide open trees right at the edge of tree-line and the alpine. We noticed no other signs of instability in the bowl we skied, or on the wind-loaded ridge."

Number of slides
0
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Red Flag
Advisory Year

NW corner Hebgen Lake

Date
Activity
Skiing

Summary of observations from Sat 1/2 and Sun 1/3:

-No avalanches observed
-Lots of whumphing and shooting cracks on N through SE aspects between 6600' and 8900'
-3" of new snow at 8900' within 24 hour period from Saturday to Sunday; snowed S1 for a few hours Sunday morning but stopped by 1 p.m. and skies went from obscured at 9:00 a.m. to broken at 3:00 p.m.
-Imperceptibly calm winds on Sunday below ridgetop at 8900' and trees holding snow at all elevations; ridge at 8900' had light Westerly winds gusting at moderate; we observed blowing and drifting snow at ridgetop being deposited on NE through E slopes

Snowpit Data from E aspect at 8200' (26 degree slope) on Saturday 1/2 at 1:00 pm:
HS 75cm
Weakest layer found at 50 cm down; weak layer is the interface between F-hardness basal facets (2-3mm) and 4-F, smaller facets above them
Test results on this layer were ECTPV, ECTP13, and PST 25/100 (end)

Region
Lionhead Range
Location (from list)
Hebgen Lake
Observer Name
Alexis Alloway

Lots of collapsing and cracking at Bacon Rind

Bacon Rind
Southern Madison
Code
Elevation
8500
Aspect
E
Latitude
44.96090
Longitude
-111.10000
Notes

Toured up Bacon Rind today. As expected we experienced dozens of massive collapses, shooting cracks, etc and were able to crack test slopes easily. Pretty fun really. Above 8k the slab became more supportable and collapses became less frequent, but traveled further. Needless to say we avoided all terrain over 30 degrees. It was snowing hard (S5) with moderate South winds when we left to drive home (1700), but it was clear by the time we got to Specimen Creek.

Number of slides
0
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Problem Type
Persistent Weak Layer
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Red Flag
Advisory Year

YNP - Southern Madison

Date

Toured up Bacon Rind today. As expected we experienced dozens of massive collapses, shooting cracks, etc and were able to crack test slopes easily. Pretty fun really. Above 8k the slab became more supportable and collapses became less frequent, but traveled further. Needless to say we avoided all terrain over 30 degrees. It was snowing hard (S5) with M South winds when we left to drive home (1700), but it was clear by the time we got to Specimen Creek.

Observer Name
Sam H