22-23

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Jan 28, 2023

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/weather/wx-avalanche-log"><span><span><span… totals are impressive</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>:</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<ul>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>29” (3.5” snow water equivalent, SWE) in the Bridger Range</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>18” (1.7” SWE) in Hyalite</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>24” (1.7” SWE) in Big Sky</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
</ul>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>It is very dangerous in the backcountry. Heaps of snow are creating avalanches, both natural and human triggered. Today is a day to stay out of avalanche terrain, including runout zones. Avalanches can be triggered from afar (remotely) and can propagate uphill. Weak snow near the ground and/or other weak layers will break and avalanche with this new load. This is not a day to dig snowpits to try and outsmart the avalanche. Avoidance is the only tactic that works. Ian and Alex rode into Buck Ridge yesterday and confirmed the Avalanche Warning (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtu.be/_AKiCAbhppk"><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span>…;). There was also a skier triggered avalanche in Lick Creek that was 2-4’ deep (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://youtube.com/shorts/RBkECAuBzKg?feature=share"><span><span><span…;) and a 2.5’ deep slide was remotely triggered in Fairy Lake (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/27849"><span><span><span><strong><span…;). Triggering avalanches is </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><em><span>very likely</span></em></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> today. During and immediately after storms is when avalanches are ripe to occur. As weather and visibility improves, do not err and assume the danger has passed, because it has not. Today the snowpack needs time to adjust to its new load. It can’t be rushed and the avalanche danger is rated HIGH. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Near West Yellowstone and Cooke City the mountains have dangerous avalanche conditions. In Cooke City yesterday, Beartooth Powder Guides reported 2-3 feet of new snow at higher elevations, far more than the automated weather stations are recording. Even with limited visibility, avalanches in the new snow were seen around Cooke City (</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>observation </span></span></strong></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/27848"><span><span><span><strong><span…; </span></span></strong></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/27843"><span><span><span><strong><span…; </span></span></strong></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/27840"><span><span><span><strong><span…;). The southern Madison Range, southern Gallatin Range and Lionhead area have gotten at least a foot of snow in the last 2 days. A buried weak layer (feathery surface hoar crystals) was avalanching </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><em><span>before</span></em></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> the storm, which means today it will be easy to trigger avalanches. While the southern mountains are not quite at Avalanche Warning criteria, they still warrant serious respect. Give all avalanche terrain a wide berth today and don’t poke the bear.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>For today, the avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all slopes since triggering avalanches is likely.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Please share avalanche, snowpack or weather observations via our</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_obs"><span><span><span><span>…; </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span><span>website</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, email (</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>mtavalanche@gmail.com</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The mountains have dangerous avalanche conditions. A buried weak layer (feathery surface hoar crystals) was avalanching </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><em><span>before</span></em></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> the storm, which means today it will be easy to trigger avalanches. While the southern mountains are not quite at Avalanche Warning criteria, they still warrant serious respect. Give all avalanche terrain a wide berth today and don’t poke the bear.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

KING AND QUEEN OF THE RIDGE, FEBRUARY 4TH

Remotely triggered avalanche in Fairy Lake

Fairy Lake
Bridger Range
Code
SS-ASr-R3-D2-I
Latitude
45.90430
Longitude
-110.95800
Notes

From IG:

Fairy lake today, remote trigger from top of the ridge
 
About 2-2.5ft deep about 75-100 ft wide
 
Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Skier
Trigger Modifier
r-A remote avalanche released by the indicated trigger
R size
3
D size
2
Bed Surface
I - Interface between new and old snow
Problem Type
New Snow
Slab Thickness
30.0 inches
Vertical Fall
300ft
Slab Width
90.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Many naturals, Cooke City

COOKE CITY
Cooke City
Code
SS-N-I
Elevation
9000
Aspect
SE
Latitude
45.02020
Longitude
-109.93800
Notes

2-3 feet of new snow was reported above Round Lake in Cooke City. Many natural avalanches were seen on S-SE slopes. From afar they look to be breaking on new-old snow interface.

Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
Bed Surface
I - Interface between new and old snow
Slab Thickness
16.0 inches
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Many naturals, Cooke City

Date
Activity
Skiing

2-3 feet of new snow was reported above Round Lake in Cooke City. Many natural avalanches were seen on S-SE slopes. From afar they look to be breaking on new-old snow interface.

Region
Cooke City
Location (from list)
COOKE CITY
Observer Name
Reed Youngbar

Natural avalanche, Silver Falls, Cooke

COOKE CITY
Cooke City
Code
SS-N-R3-D1.5-I
Elevation
8000
Aspect
SE
Latitude
45.02020
Longitude
-109.93800
Notes

Natural avy on SE aspect 8000 ft 35 to 40 degrees. Broke on new snow interface today. YNP next to Silver Falls.  Also several slides in gully below falls.  

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
3
D size
1.5
Bed Surface
I - Interface between new and old snow
Problem Type
New Snow
Slab Thickness
10.0 inches
Vertical Fall
200ft
Slab Width
100.00ft
Images
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year