22-23

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Feb 18, 2023

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Today a person can trigger avalanches that break in recently formed drifts of snow, or fresh drifts that form as snow falls later today. Over the last three days, wind out of the north and west drifted recent new snow into thicker slabs which might avalanche under the weight of a person. Two days ago, riders north of Cooke City saw a recent snowmobile triggered slide on Crown Butte (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28183"><span><span><span><strong><span…;), and skiers triggered a small slide in a wind drift in Bradley’s meadow north of Bridger Bowl (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28188"><span><span><span><strong><span…;). There were also slides earlier this week on </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28158"><span><span><span><strong><span…. Blackmore</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, in </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28186"><span><span><span><strong><span… Falls Basin</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, on </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28166"><span><span><span><strong><span… Ridge</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>,</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span> </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>and in </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28143"><span><span><span><strong><span…;. Although stability has gradually improved, recent avalanche activity is a sign to remain cautious of wind-loaded slopes for at least another day. Any new snow today will be drifted into fresh slabs that may be small, but easy to trigger. Before riding steep slopes, carefully evaluate the stability of recently formed drifts, and have a flexible plan in case you find fresh, unstable wind slabs that form today.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Recent avalanche activity appears to have broken in the recent new snow, but there are also buried weak layers in the top 3 feet of the snowpack. Avalanches on these layers are currently unlikely, but it is worthwhile to dig to assess these weak layers before riding steep slopes (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqjV1Id7_nc"><span><span><span><strong>… Ridge video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5dURPSjAX8"><span><span><span><strong>… Rind video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Avalanche danger is MODERATE on wind-loaded slopes and LOW on non-wind loaded slopes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The Lionhead area near West Yellowstone received less snow over the last couple weeks and avalanches are unlikely today. Yesterday Ian and I rode near Lionhead Ridge and saw one previously reported small, rider triggered avalanche from a few days ago (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/23/snowmobiler-triggered-avalanche-l…;). Recently formed drifts appeared to be small, not widespread and are unlikely to be triggered after having time to stabilize since they formed. Additionally, buried weak layers have become unreactive and unlikely to cause deeper avalanches. There is always some uncertainty when we generalize the snowpack over a large area, so if you choose to ride steep slopes it is worthwhile to assess the snowpack for wind-loading and buried weak layers, and always critical to follow safe travel protocols of only allowing one person at a time on or below steep slopes and carrying proper avalanche rescue gear (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxaqxUH9umA"><span><span><span><strong>… video</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Today avalanches are unlikely and avalanche danger is LOW.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Expect avalanche danger to rise overnight and tomorrow. If heavy snowfall begins early today, fresh unstable drifts may form and cause danger to increase by this evening.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Please share avalanche, snowpack or weather observations via our</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_obs"><span><span><span><span>…; </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><u><span><span>website</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, email (</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>mtavalanche@gmail.com</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

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Weak layer ~30 inches down at Hyalite

Date
Activity
Skiing

We were in the Lick creek area and did an ECT test,  the new snow appeared to be bonded well but on ECT 20 we got a clean sheer about 30 inches down across the column. We headed back to lower angle terrain.

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Lick Creek

Lionhead ridge look around

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

We rode up to ski hill and dug a pit at the top. East-northeast aspect at 8,050'. HS 164cm and ECTN21 on surface hoar 40 cm down. Then we rode up along the ridge to Airplane Bowl and dug near the ridge north of the saddle. East aspect at 9,300'. Here HS was 144cm and we had ECTN20 on facets 40 cm down. We rode down Airplane Bowl and around the north end of Lionhead Ridge into Targhee Creek. Wind was light to moderate and forming small plumes of snow along the ridge.

We did not see recent avalanches aside from one previously reported snowmobile triggered slide at the top of Airplane Bowl. It was 30-40 feet wide and maybe 6-8" deep. It appeared 3-4" of snow fell 3 days ago. This snow was blown around by the wind and created some small, isolated drifts that have become more stable with time and now seem unlikely to be triggered.

Region
Lionhead Range
Location (from list)
Lionhead Ridge
Observer Name
Alex Marienthal

Buck Ridge snowmo tour

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

We rode along Buck Ridge and into the first and second Yellow Mule, then rode into MacAtee and Muddy Creek. Wind was calm to light and not transporting snow. There was signs the wind blew previously, from the north. We did not see any recent natural or human triggered avalanches. We dug a pit near the wilderness boundary in Bear Creek. It was 212 cm deep and we had two ECTXs, one of them propagated after an extra 5-6 hits on surface hoar 2 feet (55-60cm) deep. Overall stability was good and avalanches are trending towards unlikely. Slopes that have recently formed fresh drifts may remain unstable for a couple more days.

Region
Northern Madison
Location (from list)
Buck Ridge
Observer Name
Alex Marienthal

Portal creek patrol

Date
Activity
Snowmobiling

We rode up Portal Creek today to check motorized boundaries.  Riding in the meadows and trees in the basin's north of Golden Trout lakes was decent and not caught any wind.  All of the ridge tops appeared to be heavily scoured or wind loaded, depending on aspect and we noted several small wind slabs on the N-NE ridge tops directly above the lake.  They appeared partially filled in so we're likely from a few days ago.  We did not see any recent tracks climbing much above tree line, likely since everything had been so wind affected higher up. 

Region
Northern Gallatin
Location (from list)
Portal Creek
Observer Name
USFS Bozeman snow rangers